MONTE CARLO METHOD TO EVALUATE RISK ANALYSIS

Abstract

The paper presents studies on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCM - Monte Carlo Method) applied to the evaluation of the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and NPV (Net Present Value) to simulate economic scenarios. A description of the MMC demonstrates the computational dynamics, as well as a review of the definitions of NPV and IRR are necessary for understanding the application to finally present the proposed model and its implementation. The resulting computational tool allows the evaluation of scenarios. The software is extremely functional and is structured in two parts, in one scenario offers professional software based on the routine of his financial company, thus building your database and setting the coefficients and constants of programming. At another time, after a validation test of the model, proposes a scenario the professional investment and thus can compare the numerical results provided by the software with the scenarios desired by professional. This allows monitoring at first assess which variables are most effective to achieve the desired results, and the second time evaluating various possibilities of results thus enabling the evaluation of the risk of a particular investment.