Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality: The Role of Rising Temperature in Hotel Performance in Urban Southern Europe Destinations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18089/tms.20260303Keywords:
Climate Change, Tourism Seasonality, Rising Temperature, Theil index, Occupancy rateAbstract
Climate change is driving substantial changes in the tourism industry, influencing tourist flows, seasonality patterns, and hotel profitability. However, there is a research gap regarding the impact of rising temperatures on urban destinations. This study analyses 600 monthly observations from five Southern European urban destinations using a panel data approach. The empirical results suggest that higher temperatures during peak-demand periods decrease occupancy rates; in August, a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature reduces occupancy by 2.1%. The analysis also confirms a nonlinear effect of temperature on occupancy rates, with 25.5ºC representing the level that maximises occupancy rates, ceteris paribus. Finally, for the five analysed cities, rising temperatures contribute, with a small but statistically significant effect, to the smoothing of seasonal patterns. These findings suggest that climate change may gradually reshape the distribution of demand and affect destination competitiveness and hotel profitability among the sample of Southern European cities analysed.
References
Alizadeh, M., Mirzaei, R., & Dittmann, A. (2021). Climate change and its potential impacts on sustainable tourism development. Anatolia, 32(3), 443-455. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2021.1886130
Angelini, F., Figini, P., & Leoni, V. (2024). High tide, low price? Flooding alerts and hotel prices in Venice. Tourism Economics, 30(4), 876-899. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231174270
Anguera-Torrell, O., Aznar-Alarcón, J. P., & Vives-Perez, J. (2021). COVID-19: hotel industry response to the pandemic evolution and to the public sector economic measures. Tourism Recreation Research, 46(2), 148-157. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2020.1826225
Arabadzhyan, A., Figini, P., García, C., González, M. M., Lam-González, Y. E., & León, C. J. (2021). Climate change, coastal tourism, and impact chains–a literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(16), 2233-2268. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1825351
Aznar, P. (2024). The moderating effect of seasonality in the hotel industry. Does market concentration favour tacit collusion?. European Journal of Tourism Research, 37, 3711-3711. https://doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v37i.3515
Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Shahbaz, M., & Sinha, A. (2020). The effects of tourism and globalization over environmental degradation in developed countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7130-7144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07372-4
Baños-Pino, J. F., Boto-García, D., Valle, E. D., & Zapico, E. (2023). Is visitors' expenditure at destination influenced by weather conditions?. Current Issues in Tourism, 26(10), 1554-1572. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2022.2058468
Bell, J. E., Brown, C. L., Conlon, K., Herring, S., Kunkel, K. E., Lawrimore, J. & Uejio, C. (2018). Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 68(4), 265-287. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2017.1401017
Ben Youssef, A., & Zeqiri, A. (2022). Hospitality industry 4.0 and climate change. Circular Economy and Sustainability, 2(3), 1043-1063. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-021-00141-x
Chen, C. M., & Lin, Y. C. (2014). The effect of weather on the demand for rooms in the Taiwanese hotel industry: An examination. Tourism Management Perspectives, 12, 81-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2014.09.004
Craig, C. A., & Feng, S. (2018). A temporal and spatial analysis of climate change, weather events, and tourism businesses. Tourism Management, 67, 351-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.02.013
De Cantis, S., Ferrante, M., & Vaccina, F. (2011). Seasonal pattern and amplitude–a logical framework to analyse seasonality in tourism: an application to bed occupancy in Sicilian hotels. Tourism Economics, 17(3), 655-675. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0055
Duro, J. A. (2018). Seasonality of tourism: A new decomposition. Tourism economics, 24(5), 615-621. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618768319
Falk, M. (2014). Impact of weather conditions on tourism demand in the peak summer season over the last 50 years. Tourism Management Perspectives, 9, 24-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2013.11.001
Franzoni, S., & Pelizzari, C. (2019). Rainfall financial risk assessment in the hospitality industry. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 31(3), 1104-1121. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-10-2017-0632
Gómez-Martín, M. B., Armesto-López, X. A., & Martínez-Ibarra, E. (2014). The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(5), 781-797. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0659-6
Gomez-Zavaglia, A., Mejuto, J. C., & Simal-Gandara, J. (2020). Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems. Food Research International, 134, 109256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109256
He, P., Qiu, Y., Wang, Y. D., Cobanoglu, C., Ciftci, O., & Liu, Z. (2019). Loss of profit in the hotel industry of the United States due to climate change. Environmental research letters, 14(8), 084022. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2dce
Hoogendoorn, G., & Fitchett, J. M. (2018). Tourism and climate change: A review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(7), 742-759. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1188893
Ibragimov, K., Perles-Ribes, J. F., & Ramón-Rodríguez, A. B. (2022). The impact of climate change on tourism demand: Evidence from Kazakhstan. Anatolia, 33(2), 293-297. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2022.2029510
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2024). IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2024. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Sixth Assessment Report. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
Jarratt, D., & Davies, N. J. (2020). Planning for climate change impacts: Coastal tourism destination resilience policies. Tourism Planning & Development, 17(4), 423-440. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2019.1667861
Karamustafa, K., & Ulama, S. (2010). Measuring the seasonality in tourism with the comparison of different methods. EuroMed Journal of Business, 5(2), 191-214. https://doi.org/10.1108/14502191011065509
Kinney, P. L. (2018). Interactions of climate change, air pollution, and human health. Current Environmental Health Reports, 5(1), 179-186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-018-0188-x
Korsan-Kumińska, K. (2016). Assessing the impact of global warming on the sport, tourism, and recreation industries in western Norway. Studia Ecologiae et Bioethicae, 14(3), 143-168. https://doi.org/10.21697/seb.2016.14.3.08
Martínez, J. D. C., & Morales, A. F. (2025). An integrated methodological framework to measure tourism seasonality across short-stay accommodations offered via online platforms and hotels. Tourism & Management Studies, 21(4), 33-49. https://doi.org/10.18089/tms.20250403
Matzarakis, A. (2007). Climate, thermal comfort and tourism. Climate change and tourism-assessment and coping strategies, 139-154. https://doi.org/10.1080/14790530600938279
Meteostat. (2025). Historical daily temperature data [Data set]. Meteostat. https://meteostat.net/
(Accessed December 2025).
Mitra, S. K. (2020). Estimating the duration of different seasons and their impact on hotel room prices. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 90, 102604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102604
Mun, S. G., & Park, S. (2023). Effects of abnormal weather conditions on the performance of hotel firms. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 47(7), 1299-1324. https://doi.org/10.1177/10963480211070211
Nacipucha, D., Ruhanen, L., & Cooper, C. (2017). Adaption to climate change: A knowledge management approach. Anatolia, 28(3), 422-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2017.1331455
Ngin, C., Chhom, C., & Neef, A. (2020). Climate change impacts and disaster resilience among micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector: The case of Kratie, Cambodia. Environmental Research, 186, 109557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109557
Scott, D. (2024). Tourism and the climate crisis. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 32(9), 1709-1724. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2024.2391911
Scott, D., & Gössling, S. (2022). A review of research into tourism and climate change-Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism and climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 95, 103409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2022.103409
Steiger, R., Knowles, N., Pöll, K., & Rutty, M. (2024). Impacts of climate change on mountain tourism: A review. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 32(9), 1984-2017. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2022.2112204
Wang, X., Sun, J., & Wen, H. (2019). Tourism seasonality, online user rating and hotel price: A quantitative approach based on the hedonic price model. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 79, 140-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2019.01.007
Wertlieb, E. R., & Orttung, R. W. (2025). Localized climate change impacts on tourism businesses. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 6(1), 100176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2025.100176
Yeon, J., Song, H. J., & Lee, S. (2020). Impact of short-term rental regulation on hotel industry: a difference-in-differences approach. Annals of Tourism Research, 83, 102939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102939
Zhang, D., Xie, J., & Sikveland, M. (2021). Tourism seasonality and hotel firms' financial performance: Evidence from Norway. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(21), 3021-3039. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1857714
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Tourism & Management Studies
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The journal retains published articles’ copyrights, but they are simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-ND), which allows individuals’ to share the relevant papers as long as authorship and publication in this journal are duly acknowledged.
