Tourism and economic growth in Portugal: An empirical investigation of causal links

Authors

  • Joao Paulo Bento Departament of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering University of Aveiro Campus Universitário de Santiago 3810-193 Aveiro Portugal

Keywords:

Tourism-led growth hypothesis, domestic tourists, international tourists, cointegration analysis, Portugal

Abstract

This study is designed to investigate the relationship between real income and both national and international tourism volume for Portugal. The study uses quarterly data and covers the period for 1995-2015. The stationary properties of the time series data are examined by using conventional and endogenous break unit root tests. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests are employed to search for a long-run relationship along with causality among the variables. The findings of the tests provide evidence for the existence of long-run cointegration relationship between arrivals at tourist accommodation establishments and real income. The causality results show that real income is caused by foreign tourist’s arrivals, and detect bilateral causality between domestic tourists and foreign tourists.

Author Biography

  • Joao Paulo Bento, Departament of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering University of Aveiro Campus Universitário de Santiago 3810-193 Aveiro Portugal

    João Paulo Cerdeira Bento

    PhD in Economics, University of Reading

    Member of GOVCOPP, Research Unit on Governance and Public Policies

    Assistant Professor at DEGEIT, Department of Economics, Management, Industrial Engineering and Tourism, University of Aveiro

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Published

31.01.2016

Issue

Section

Tourism/Hospitality: Research Papers

How to Cite

Bento, J. P. (2016). Tourism and economic growth in Portugal: An empirical investigation of causal links. Tourism & Management Studies, 12(1), 164-171. https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/792

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