Forecasting Tourist In-Flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore

Authors

  • Manoj Kumar IIT Delhi
  • Seema Sharma (Associate Professor) Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology New Delhi – India

Keywords:

Forecasting, Seasonal ARIMA, Tourist Arrivals, Singapore

Abstract

This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the country becomes very important for the reason that the forecasting may help tourism related service industries (e.g. airlines, hotels, shopping malls, transporters and catering services, etc.) to plan and prepare their resources and activities in an optimal way. In this paper, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology was considered for making monthly predictions on tourist arrival in Singapore. The best model for forecasting is found out to be (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 and monthly forecasting were obtained for two years in future. Further, various statistical tests (e.g. Dickey Fuller, KPSS, HEGY, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce etc.) were applied on the time series for adequacy of best model to fit, residual autocorrelation analysis and for the accuracy of the prediction.

Author Biographies

  • Manoj Kumar, IIT Delhi
    Manoj Kumar completed his B.Tech. from Indian School of Mines (ISM) Dhanbad (India) and  holds MBA from ICFAI Business School (IBS), Hyderabad (India). He has taught in India, Myanmar and Thailand. He has experiences of conducting high impact development programs for students. A keen researcher, he has published research work in various journals in many countries. Currently he is associated as research fellow at department of management studies, IIT Delhi (India).
  • Seema Sharma, (Associate Professor) Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology New Delhi – India

    Dr. Seema Sharma is an Associate Professor in the area of economics and statistical analysis. She completed her PhD from IIT Delhi. The major area of her research, among others, centers on productivity and efficiency analysis. She has published her research in National and International refereed Journals of high repute. She has participated and presented her research in many National and International conferences in India and abroad. She has widely travelled to countries such as USA, Japan, Australia, Thailand and Czech Republic.

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Published

31.01.2016

Issue

Section

Tourism/Hospitality: Research Papers

How to Cite

Forecasting Tourist In-Flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore. (2016). Tourism & Management Studies, 12(1), 107-119. https://www.tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/718

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