TOURISM DEMAND IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF PORTUGAL: LOG MODEL VS FIRST-DIFFERENCE MODEL

Natália Sofia dos Santos, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract


The main aim of this work is to model tourism demand in the Northern Region of Portugal using econometric models based on general linear model. And to construct an instrument to get in advance the evolution of tourism demand in that Region, since it has shown in recent years, some potential as a significant „magnetism? of tourist flows.

 

For this purpose we used the tourism temporal series "Monthly Nights in Hotels in the Northern Region of Portugal", recorded for the period January 1996 to December 2009. The first-difference model showed their capabilities to explain the behaviour of tourist demand in the Northern Region of Portugal.


Keywords


Tourism; Tourism Demand; Econometric Models; Northern Region of Portugal





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